It’s been 505 days since Donald Trump descended his golden escalator and 570 days since Hillary Clinton said on YouTube “I’m running for president.”
Gay dating app SCRUFF released the results of their fourth SCRUFFtistic, where they take one final look at the 2016 presidential election. Their first was a national survey of primary voters, followed by state primary surveys in both California and New York. In this final survey, they asked more questions about the politics of their users instead of simply asking them who they plan to vote for.
Nearly 13,000 SCRUFF guys took the full survey and answered dozens of questions on matters ranging from transgender rights to gun control to split ticket voting.
ELECTION 2016 POLL RESULTS
Here are the results from the the SCRUFF likely voter model of gay, bisexual, trans and queer guys:
Hillary Clinton is the clear favorite with support from roughly 79 percent of GBTQ guys. Donald Trump is supported by around 11% of GBTQ guys, while third party candidates Gary Johnson and Jill Stein receive the support of roughly 2.5% of guys. An additional 5% of GBTQ voters either plan to vote for another candidate or are undecided. Here’s how that translates into the Electoral College map:
SCRUFF’s results largely mirror the scientific surveys of LGBT voters. Of course, the data only include men, but belonging to the “LGBT” group may be a more predictive demographic factor than race, age, geography, or even education level, according to a basic analysis by Carl Bialik at FiveThirtyEight, the poll blog. More about that is available at FiveThirtyEight.com
Here’s are the states where Clinton and Trump enjoy the strongest relative support from the GBTQ community:
District of Columbia — 87.89%
Louisiana — 28.32%
Donald Trump’s vaunted outreach to LGBT voters seems to have had little impact. Trump invited Peter Thiel, the billionaire PayPal investor, to be the first openly gay person to address a Republican National Convention. Trump recently held up a rainbow flag at a rally and surrogates have worked to soften his message on LGBT rights. But the overwhelming response shows that LGBT voters still say #ImWithHer. As a way to assess the efficacy of Donald Trump’s outreach to queer voters, we asked this question:
Also, guys told us that the 2016 election has pushed them toward the Democratic party, even as national trends show that voters are less likely than ever to register with a party when they register to vote:
|Overall, 2016 made me more likely to…||%|
|Support Democratic candidates||39.09|
|Support third-party candidates||19.54|
|Support Republican candidates||5.06|
|Less likely to vote||2.15|
|No impact on voting plans||34.14|
That said, a solid third of respondents still plan to “split the ticket,” or vote for candidates of different parties. 63% of guys said they plan to vote for the same party across their ballot, but 37% say they will vote for different parties.
POLITICAL OPINIONS OF GAY MEN
Since their previous polling had demonstrated a strong overall preference for Democratic candidates amongst GBTQ men in the U.S., we decided to ask specific political questions in this survey to get a more nuanced look at the political views of gay men. Here are some of their favorite stats:
Q11 – Of the following unresolved LGBTQ legislative issues, which is the most important to you?
|Federal employment non-discrimination act||38.57|
|Combating religious freedom laws||25.79|
|HIV criminalization laws||4.8|
Q18 – Please select the economic point of view that most closely aligns with yours:
|The government should increase taxes on the wealthy to pay for entitlements and programs that benefit lower income and middle class people||78.69|
|The government should cut taxes and regulations on businesses and individuals to spur economic growth||21.31|
Q21 – People of color are disproportionately targeted by the police.
Q13 – In my opinion, the Pulse Nightclub attack was a…
Interesting: There is a strong party correlation on this question:
|Party Affiliation||Attack Description||% (pa)|
|Independent voter / NPA||Hate crime||39.76|
|Independent voter / NPA||Terrorism||10.55|
|Independent voter / NPA||BOTH||42.25|
|Independent voter / NPA||NEITHER||7.43|
|NOT REGISTERED||Hate crime||45.99|
Q23 – The right to bear arms (the second amendment) is very important.
Q12 – Please describe the impact that the June 2016 shooting at Pulse Nightclub in Orlando had on your voting choices
|More likely to vote for gun-control candidates||41.32|
|More likely to vote for gun-rights candidates||7.03|
Interesting strong party split on these questions:
|Party Affiliation||Attack Impact||% (pa)|
|Democratic||More likely to vote for gun-control candidates||49.56|
|Democratic||More likely to vote for gun-rights candidates||1.61|
|Republican||More likely to vote for gun-control candidates||13.26|
|Republican||More likely to vote for gun-rights candidates||31.83|
|Independent voter / NPA||More likely to vote for gun-control candidates||32.12|
|Independent voter / NPA||More likely to vote for gun-rights candidates||10.27|
|Independent voter / NPA||No impact||57.61|
|Other||More likely to vote for gun-control candidates||22.6|
|Other||More likely to vote for gun-rights candidates||16.35|
|NOT REGISTERED||More likely to vote for gun-control candidates||42.16|
|NOT REGISTERED||More likely to vote for gun-rights candidates||7.49|
|NOT REGISTERED||No impact||50.35|
ELECTION 2016 THEMATIC QUESTIONS
Q24 – Immigrants pose a threat to our society (economically or in terms of security).
Q? – Russia is a growing threat to our national security.
Q25 – Race relations have improved under President Obama.
Q26 – Struggle for LGBTQ rights mostly complete
Q27 – The fight for transgender rights in the U.S. is mostly complete.
Q28 – Marijuana should be legalized
Q29 – The rainbow flag represents me.
Q30 – Russia is a growing threat to our national security.
Q31 – The U.S. has a moral responsibility to take in refugees from countries like Syria.
Q32 – The U.S. should deploy ground troops to help resolve foreign conflicts.
Q33 – The U.S. should actively advance democracy in foreign countries.
Q34 – The 2016 election is rigged.